Is A Recession On The Horizon? Yes. I Mean, No. Well, Maybe.

Everyone’s talking about impeachment whether or not a recession is on the horizon, and of course what that does to real estate. What follows is part of an email I sent my office last week while in Williamsburg for our state association’s annual conference. I wanted to include for the team my thoughts on the market after sitting in on a session called “The State of the Economy in Virginia”, from Virginia Realtors’ chief economist, Lisa Sturtevant. Often, these reports are rosy and pie in the sky, but I was pleased to see that she seemed to both be reporting realistically, at least realistic to what we’re all feeling on the street level here in the New River Valley. I know the economics might not be something we all geek out on, and that’s fine – my goal is to summarize some things for everyone. Here’s some of what I picked up:
  • Nationally, we’re in the midst of the longest sustained GDP growth in the history of the country. In the midst of that growth, we’re seeing job growth slow, which suggests something is going on.
  • Virginia has traditionally weathered recessions better than the rest of the country, in large part because of the federal government’s influence. Even in a recession, the federal government likes to spend money.
  • Unemployment in Virginia is 2.9%, compared to 4% nationally
    • Lisa explained that while this seems like a good thing, it’s not. We don’t have enough unemployed persons in the state to add jobs, and as you’ll see later we don’t have the housing inventory for people even when they move in from other states, so we’re in a sort of a stall there.
    Number of sales in Virginia are up 2% year-over-year through July (the New River Valley is DOWN 9.2%) Median home prices in Virginia are up 5% through July (the New River Valley is UP 8.3%) Inventory in Virginia is down 8% through July (the New River Valley is DOWN 15.6%) Homeownership rates in VA are at their lowest rates in the last 30 years (my note – some of this HAS to be because of inventory. If the inventory isn’t there, people aren’t going to buy because there isn’t anything to buy) the 25-34 year olds are starting to get a foothold, with increasing wages/savings/savings rates … if there’s a recession, will this set them back?

    So there are a number of positives going on: Read More

Are Zestimates Right?

Ah, Zillow. Say the word in a crowded room full of Realtors and you’ll hear boos and hisses, as well as a few things you might not want your grandmother to hear. But the fact is, Zillow is getting some things right, and consumers are using the site. So what are we, as an industry, fighting them for? That’s a post for another day, and one I don’t think I’m ready to write – yet. I don’t hate Zillow. I like the site. Used it yesterday for personal research, in fact. It’s slick, easy to use, and has a ton of information. Read More

Buying A Home With Private Wells and Septic Systems in Virginia

Last month I wrote “Ten Things To Know About A Well in the New River Valley”, and just this afternoon received notice that the Virginia Department of Health just last week posted a video entitled What To Know When Buying A Home with a Well and Septic System in Virginia. You can see that video below – even more timely as I had, just minutes before, met with new buyers and we’d talked about buying homes with a well and/or septic system. Thanks, VDH!

What to Look for When Buying your First Home

You’ll remember your first homebuying experience, I guarantee it. When you’re looking to buy your first home, it’s easy to feel like you’re in a rush. A rush to get pre-approved, meet a realtor, and look at homes. And the process in all likelihood will be a little hectic. Sometimes you need to strike at the right time and that might mean some decision-making. A GOOD agent will take what is admittedly a stressful process and help make it less stressful – we can talk about some ways to do that. A bad agent? A bad agent will make you want to never buy a house again. And that’s sad. Read More

Four Biggest Seller Mistakes

Big day! Time to sell the house. This day came around sooner than you thought, didn’t it? We sell for all kinds of reasons–to go bigger, to move into something smaller, or to move across the country. No matter what the reason, it’s important to avoid some simple mistakes. You may have thought home buying was stressful but this is a whole new beast. Selling means showing your house and waiting for that sometimes illusive offer. Once it does come, you have to move. If you’ve been in the home thirty or forty years, moving can be extraordinarily daunting. Read More